Electric cars are, despite current issues, destined for triumph, the numbers show
Electric vehicles will lead the way in passenger car sales in the coming years. Despite the current situation, the trend of their growth is already firmly established not only within the European Union but also beyond its borders. According to current data, electromobility is likely to expect a "triumph" among other types of passenger car propulsion.
Electromobility faces challenges in Europe, and according to recent statistics, sales of electric vehicles are showing a significant decline in some countries, including Europe's "automotive mecca" - Germany. This trend might initially give the impression that the electric vehicle market is stagnating. However, it seems more likely to be a temporary phenomenon rather than a permanent decline. Data indicates that the growth potential of electromobility remains strong, not just in Europe but globally.
According to data shared by Stefan Bratzel, Director of the German Center of Automotive Management (CAM) on the social network Linkedin, 1,213,262 battery electric vehicles (BEV) were registered in Europe in the first eight months of 2024. This represents a decline of just 5.5% compared to the same period in 2023. This figure includes not only EU countries but also the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the United Kingdom. Despite local issues, in some European countries, demand for electric vehicles is on the rise - for instance, Denmark recorded a 50.8% increase in new BEV registrations and Belgium a 41.3% increase.
The decline in Germany is primarily due to the impacts of regulations from 2023, which led to a reduction or elimination of ecological bonuses for businesses and private individuals. This step caused a sharp increase in registrations at the end of 2023, and therefore a decline in the following months. This fluctuation is more localized, as global demand for electric vehicles continues to grow.
At a global level, BEV sales are growing significantly. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 3.4 million new BEVs were sold in the first quarter of 2024, representing a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The most significant growth was recorded in China, where BEV sales rose by 36% to 1.9 million vehicles. China, quickly becoming a dominant market for electric vehicles, demonstrates that electromobility has global potential, which will be further supported in the future.
For the entire year of 2024, IEA expects global BEV sales to be around 17 million vehicles, representing an annual increase of 21%. However, growth is slightly slowing compared to previous years, which may be related to various regulatory changes and market conditions. While between 2022 and 2023, the number of new BEV registrations grew by 35% to 14 million, this year, a 21% increase is expected. Nevertheless, this development indicates that electromobility is gradually gaining a larger market share and achieving higher acceptance levels.
Other reasons for the growth in global demand include the gradual reduction in battery costs, which form the most expensive part of an electric vehicle, and increasing operating costs of conventional internal combustion engines. In China, the prices of electric vehicles are already comparable to those of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, and thanks to lower electricity prices compared to gasoline, their operation is becoming increasingly advantageous.
Electromobility will only grow, forecasts predict
Additionally, Gartner estimates that by 2025, there will be approximately 85 million electric vehicles on the road globally, of which 62 million will be pure battery electric vehicles. In Europe, the number of electric vehicles is expected to reach about 20.6 million in 2025, including seven million plug-in hybrids. These figures indicate long-term growth, supported not only by government policies but also by the automotive industry's efforts to adapt to new market demands and environmental regulations.
According to Gartner, 2025 will be a crucial year for the European electric vehicle market. Manufacturers will be forced to significantly strengthen the market share of electric vehicles to avoid EU fines for non-compliance with set emission limits. One possible strategy will be increasing discounts on electric vehicles and raising prices of vehicles with internal combustion engines. European car manufacturers will need to focus on adapting their offerings to market needs and responding more consistently to changes in policy and regulations.
Despite temporary difficulties, such as demand fluctuations and challenges at the level of state regulation, electromobility is on the rise globally. With declining battery prices and rising costs of conventional cars, electric vehicles are becoming more accessible and attractive to the general public. Moreover, climate targets and political pressures force the automotive industry to move towards cleaner technologies.
Electric vehicles not only have the potential to replace vehicles with internal combustion engines but also contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This transition will be supported not only by legislative measures but also by investments in infrastructure, such as charging stations and advanced energy storage technologies. Overall, it can be expected that electric vehicles will remain "in vogue" in the coming years and play a key role in the future of transportation.
